ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measure employs the international extreme poverty threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the largest contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together account for another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations represent roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP is responsible for about 14% of the world’s extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the sole World Bank region where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to increase.
In addition, Pakistan’s situation has worsened at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, a standard used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of individuals below this threshold grew by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached around 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty levels intensify following successive shocks
These latest findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million individuals to the region’s projected extreme poverty count. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite some improvement in Pakistan’s economic growth from recent lows, poverty indicators remain high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal year 2025-26 and 3.8% for 2026-27. It also estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, with an increase to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences the headline statistics
The 48% figure reflects the current World Bank classification of the MENAAP region, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, regional statistics placed both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government stated that this update was administrative and statistical, affirming that it did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, the finance minister’s adviser, explained that the revised grouping impacted regional poverty figures by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The World Bank’s October report also depicts a softer regional economy in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, primarily due to conflict and disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient, with an estimated growth of 4.3% in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across several economies in the region.