PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might cut back its daily ship movements to approximately 29 vessels in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new head. Ilya Espino de Marotta, who assumed her role on Sept. 7, highlighted this possibility amid El Niño’s impact on reservoir levels. The canal depends on freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already begun phased capacity reductions following below-normal precipitation across the watershed area.
Beginning Sept. 3, the canal provided nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 slots per day. From Sept. 15 onward, the availability for Panamax ships will decrease to 23 slots, bringing the total daily capacity down to 32. These adjustments are a response to reduced rainfall during Panama’s rainy season and lower inflows into the canal’s watershed. The authorities are employing water conservation strategies and tighter scheduling controls while closely observing the levels of Gatun Lake and other water sources.
During fiscal 2026, the canal’s average daily transits until June 30 were 35, based on official operational data. From October to June, there were 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. These figures preceded the recent rainfall decline, which prompted stricter operational restrictions. The waterway connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is a vital route for container ships, energy freight, bulk commodities, and various other cargo types.
Water scarcity prompts tighter transit limits
The locks of the canal depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to raise and lower ships at each crossing. Consequently, reservoir water levels directly influence the number of vessels that can transit during extended dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s levels reached unusually low points. After rainfall improved and water conservation efforts were implemented, capacity was gradually restored, helping to stabilize water availability for both canal operations and public needs.
In addition, vessel draft restrictions have been modified as part of the water management measures. On Sept. 4, officials delayed a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The existing 48-foot limit remains, following an assessment of Gatun Lake levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits regulate how deeply ships can sit in the water, which is an essential factor for vessels carrying heavier loads.
Changes to booking procedures as capacity shrinks
As available capacity tightens, the canal has also modified its booking and auction rules. Daily auction slots are now categorized by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with the highest cargo capacity are prioritized in Neopanamax slot allocation. Authorities have urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as reduced capacity could lead to longer waiting times. Holding a confirmed reservation remains the only method to secure a guaranteed transit date.
A further reduction to 29 ships per day has not been mandated. The administrator indicated that such a limit could be considered for February or March if dry conditions persist. Ongoing monitoring of rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels continues to inform potential operational adjustments. The canal is also advancing the Río Indio reservoir project aimed at expanding long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to secure water supplies for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.